Project period: May – July 2014
GW4 Community Leads
University of Bath: Nicholas Mitchell
University of Bristol: Dan Lunt
Cardiff University: Ian Hall
University of Exeter: Tim Lenton
This project will focus on quantitatively evaluating the risks of extremes in climate and its variability. These extremes (floods, droughts and heat waves) pose potentially the largest climate change risks that societies need to manage, better guidance is urgently needed. The central idea will be to use an integrated network of observational and paleoclimate data, along with climate model simulations, to elucidate the relationship between the mean climate state and climate variability across a range of timescales, and to identify possible precursors of climate tipping points that could form the basis for early warning systems.
This project has developed new collaborations and a stronger community. The group have begun working on a synthesis paper and have identified key research opportunities for GW4 that will make a successful NERC large grant proposal. Links between paleoclimate modelling research within GW4 and state-of-the-art predictive model development at the Met Office has also been strengthened.